WGA and the State of the Oscar Race

I've been avoiding writing about this year's Oscar race, mostly because its been extremely boring up to this point. However, I suppose I can't avoid it forever.

Today, the Writers Guild of America announced their nominations:

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Stranger Than Fiction
United 93

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Little Children
Thank You for Smoking

There were a few interesting surprises in there. The inclusion of Borat was a surprise, if only because it was mostly improvised. There is a precident, since Bowling For Columbine got nominated here. It could be that screenplay is where the Academy honors Cohen, since the buzz and predictors are sadly leaning away from him getting nominated in for Actor.

Additionally, I was surprised by the inclusion of Stranger Than Fiction and Prada. Fiction has been a complete nonfactor in the race so far, but I was glad to see it get included. Prada hasn't gotten much attention either, outside of Streep's performace, however I was hoping for Children of Men to get in here.

These awards mark the fourth guild nomination for Departed, Sunshine, and Babel (who were also nodded at the PGA, DGA, and the ensemble category of SAG) in what is essentially the Best Picture category. Its the third nod for The Queen (snubbed by SAG) and missing is Dreamgirls (with nods from everyone else). As a result it is, at this point, extremely foolish to predict anything besides those five films. It is sad, but true. While I like these films to varying extents, this kind of single-mindedness has made for a boring Oscar season. I also find it hard to believe that these are the only five films released in 2006 that are worthy of attention. What about Children of Men? Or Pan's Labyrinth? Or United 93? Or Little Children? Or The Prestige?

I'm not mad simply because I want there to be a race. A lot of these smaller films need the attention that comes with these awards to get box office and to spread so more people get the opportunity to see them. Additionally, precursor awards should operate as a series of suggestions to the Academy. Instead, its become a race to see who can most accurately predict the Oscars. Granted, the guilds are not trying to predict the Oscars, instead they are the most accurate because they are simply a poll of professionals working in the fields they vote on, and not a group of critics or journalists. However its indicitive of a larger problem. Looking at the critics groups winners, its nearly impossible to find an acting award for someone who is not Helen Mirren or Forrest Whittaker.

So the bad news, at this point your nominees for Best Picture are Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen.

The good news, however, is that that is an excellent line-up without a truly weak film in the bunch. There isn't any of the trite, manipulative Million Dollar Baby-type films that usually sneak in. And even my least favorite film of the group, which is probably Dreamgirls, is a lot of fun to watch. The race may not be as much fun as it was four or five years ago, when there were more films in the derby, even at this point, but the other advantage is that the actual race for the winner is going to be extremely close. There is no film that I would count out at this point, except maybe The Queen. Round One is over, but Round Two is just beginning.